Abstract and keywords
Abstract (English):
An approach to phase space reconstruction is used to understand and predict the average monthly temperature dynamics. The predictions are made using a nonlinear local polynomial procedure by stepwise representing the dynamics recorded in the phase space in the local neighborhood. The time series of temperature data was reconstructed in phase spaces with embedding dimensions from 1 to 10 and a delay time from 1 to 14 months, and forecasts for a period of more than 1 year were made. The results showed a good correspondence between the predicted and observed temperatures.

Keywords:
time series, temperature regime, chaotic dynamics, phase space reconstruction, local approximation, weather forecast
References

1. Kargin, N.I. Vychislitel'nyy metod ocenki polya skorosti vetra v pogranichnom sloe atmosfery na osnove uravneniya Nav'e-Stoksa / N.I. Kargin, V.I. Naac // Izvestiya vysshih uchebnyh zavedeniy. Severo-Kavkazskiy region. Seriya: Estestvennye nauki. – 2005. – № S5. – S. 1-13.

2. Eliseev, A.V. Osnovnye ponyatiya ustoychivosti i prognoziruemosti krupnomasshtabnyh atmosfernyh processov / A.V. Eliseev. – Kazan': Izdatel'stvo Kazanskogo universiteta, 2017. – 23 s.

3. Magnickiy, N.A. Teoriya dinamicheskogo haosa / N.A. Magnickiy. – Moskva: Editorial URSS, 2011. – 320 s.

4. Cepelev, V.Yu. Ansamblevyy prognoz: sostavlenie, ispol'zovanie, interpretaciya / V.Yu. Cepelev, O.G. Aniskina. – Sankt-Peterburg.: Izdatel'sko-poligraficheskaya associaciya vysshih uchebnyh zavedeniy, 2022. – 110 s.

5. Yunicheva, N.R. Avtomatizaciya predprocessingovoy obrabotki dannyh global'nyh klimaticheskih modeley dlya provedeniya raschetov regional'nyh klimaticheskih modeley dlya pervogo prioritetnogo perioda programmy CORDEX / N.R. Yunicheva, D.B. Nurseitov, I.B. Eserkepova [i dr.] // Gidrometeorologiya i ekologiya. – 2020. – № 2 (97). – S. 94-102.

6. Mirsaeva, N.A. Statisticheskie metody dolgosrochnogo prognoza pogody / N.A. Mirsaeva. – Kazan': Izdatel'stvo Kazanskogo universiteta, 2018. – 21 s.

7. Seryh, I.V. Haos i poryadok v atmosfernoy dinamike. Chast' 1. Haoticheskie variacii pogody / I.V. Seryh, D.M. Sonechkin // Izvestiya vuzov. Prikladnaya nelineynaya dinamika. – 2017. – T. 25, № 4. – S. 4-22.

8. Bazarskiy, O.V. Entropiya abioticheskih geosfer i model' dlya ocenki i prognoza ih sostoyaniya / O.V. Bazarskiy, Zh.Yu. Kochetova // Biosfera. – 2021. – T. 13, № 1-2. – S. 9-14.

9. Bazarskiy, O.V. Teoriya determinirovannogo haosa dlya opisaniya ekologo-medicinskoy sistemy / O.V. Bazarskiy, Zh.Yu. Kochetova // Geograficheskaya sreda i zhivye sistemy. – 2021. – № 3. – S. 96-109.

10. Mal'cev, G.N. Algoritm rekonstrukcii fazovogo prostranstva dinamicheskoy sistemy i ego primenenie dlya razrabotki prognoznyh modeley / G.N. Mal'cev, A.V. Nazarov, V.L. Yakimov // Informacionno-upravlyayuschie sistemy. – 2014. – № 2 (69). – S. 33-39.

11. Dmitrieva, V.A. Temperaturnyy rezhim Voronezhskoy oblasti v usloviyah menyayuschegosya klimata / V.A. Dmitrieva, A.I. Sushkov // Vestnik Voronezhskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta. Seriya: Geografiya. Geoekologiya. – 2023. – № 2. – S. 56-63.

12. Loskutov, A.Yu. Primenenie metoda lokal'noy approksimacii dlya prognoza ekonomicheskih pokazateley / A.Yu. Loskutov, D.I. Zhuravlev, O.L. Kotlyarov // Voprosy analiza i upravleniya riskom. – 2003. – T. 1, № 1. – S. 21-31.

Login or Create
* Forgot password?