Voronezh, Russian Federation
Voronezh, Voronezh, Russian Federation
The probability of occurrence of catastrophic situations in forest areas is determined by the processes of their interaction with the environment. Therefore, the formation of models for monitoring the state of forests is impossible without a systematic analysis of the dynamics of the main climatic characteristics: precipitation and temperature throughout the year. The paper proposes a statistical model for the dynamics of the probability of observing the practical absence of daily temperature fluctuations during the year. For statistical modeling of temperature data by months, the time series method was used. The applied approach can become a convenient tool in systems for predicting catastrophic situations in ecological systems.
diurnal temperature fluctuations, state of forest areas, statistical modeling, Gaussian function, time series analysis
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